2.0 Synthesis: Climate processes, predictability and impacts

Description

WAMSI’s climate change research was carried out in all six nodes of 2006-2011 research but was particularly prominent in Node 2 (Climate processes, predictability and impacts in a warming Indian Ocean) which conducted strategic research in the Indian Ocean and the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean, upwind from WA in the westerly air-streams.

The research identified links between large scale variations in the ocean and impacts on the marine environment off WA. It focused on identifying ocean-processes that feed back to the atmosphere and give persistence and predictability to climate anomalies.

Node 2 consisted of three projects with the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO’s Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship and the Australian Institute of Marine Science.

Aims

• Identify large-scale variations in the ocean and its effect on the WA marine ecosystem
• Predict future changes in the eastern Indian and subantarctic Southern Ocean and their effect on WA’s marine environment
• Project climate change signals in the Leeuwin Current
• Assess the impacts of climate change at Ningaloo Reef
• Forecast seasonal changes of large-scale ocean off the WA coast
• Identify ocean-processes that interact with the atmosphere and provide help predict irregular climate events
• Deliver climate research on a variety of scales, from the entire Indian Ocean, the Leeuwin Current, to Ningaloo Reef, and ranging from seasonal, inter-annual, to long-term changes

Outcomes

• An understanding of the usefulness of seasonal forecasts of Leeuwin Current strength and structure, including downscaling to inshore areas that are affected by climate: Outputs from projects 2.1, 2.2, 2.3
• Knowing the best we can expect (so called “potential predictability”) from seasonal climate forecasts of large scale ocean-climate, and possible applications in Western Australia: Outputs from project 2.1
• An understanding of the usefulness of downscaling climate change to support planning and management of Leeuwin Current ecosystems: Outputs from projects 2.1, 2.2, 2.3

Reports

Feng M, McPhaden M.J., Lee T. Decadal variability of the Pacific subtropical cells and their influence on the southeast Indian Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters (2010) doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042796

Feng, M., Weller, E. and Hill, K. (2009) The Leeuwin Current. In A Marine Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Report Card for Australia 2009 (Eds. E.S. Poloczanska, A.J. Hobday and A.J. Richardson), NCCARF Publication 05/09, ISBN 978-1-921609-03-9.

Feng M, McPhaden M.J., Lee T. Decadal variability of the Pacific subtropical cells and their influence on the southeast Indian Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters (2010) doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042796

Feng, M., Weller, E. and Hill, K. (2009) The Leeuwin Current. In A Marine Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Report Card for Australia 2009 (Eds. E.S. Poloczanska, A.J. Hobday and A.J. Richardson), NCCARF Publication 05/09, ISBN 978-1-921609-03-9.

Hendon, H.H., Wang, G. Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model. RMetS (2009). https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.370 

Hendon, H.H., Wang, G. Seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current using the POAMA dynamical seasonal forecast model. Clim Dyn 34, 1129–1137 (2010). doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0570-3

Hendon, H.H., Wang, G. Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model. RMetS (2009). https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.370 

Holbrook, N.J., Davidson, J., Feng, M., Hobday, A.J., Lough, J.M., McGregor, S. and Risbey, J.S. (2009) El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In A Marine Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Report Card for Australia 2009 (Eds. E.S. Poloczanska, A.J. Hobday and A.J. Richardson), NCCARF Publication 05/09, ISBN 978-1-921609-03-9.

Holbrook, N.J., Davidson, J., Feng, M., Hobday, A.J., Lough, J.M., McGregor, S. and Risbey, J.S. (2009) El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In A Marine Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Report Card for Australia 2009 (Eds. E.S. Poloczanska, A.J. Hobday and A.J. Richardson), NCCARF Publication 05/09, ISBN 978-1-921609-03-9.

Lowe RJ, Ivey G, Brinkman RM and Jones NL (2012) Seasonal circulation and temperature variability near the North West Cape of Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007653

Taebi S, Lowe RJ, Pattiaratchi C, Ivey G, Symonds G and Brinkman RM (2011) Nearshore circulation in a tropical fringing reef system. Journal of Geophysical Research 116:C02016. doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006439

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