2.1 Dynamics and predictability of the Indo-Pacific Ocean

Description

The objective of this project was to understand and predict large-scale variation and change of the ocean-climate, and its impact with the continental shelf to inform decision making in WA agencies that have to address vulnerability to climate variation and change.

The project developed a predictive scheme for Fremantle sea level, a proxy index of the Leeuwin Current, based on historical forecasts (hindcasts) from the Bureau of Meteorology’s coupled dynamical seasonal prediction system POAMA version 1.5b (The Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia). The hindcasts were used to establish the accuracy of seasonal predictions for the large-scale marine environment off Western Australia.

Recognising that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affect seasonal weather patterns off Western Australia, the project also estimated the potential predictability of the IOD using POAMA and the interannual atmospheric conditions over WA during ENSO and IOD events.

The POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System (PEODAS) produced daily ocean maps for the period from 1980 to 2006 using all available observations.

The project developed a characterisation of the upper ocean state associated with Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO, Wheeler and Hendon 2004) with particular focus on the nearshore variations of temperature and currents off Western Australia. Predictability of the regional marine and weather conditions associated with MJO was assessed.

Reports

Hendon, H.H., Wang, G. Seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current using the POAMA dynamical seasonal forecast model. Clim Dyn 34, 1129–1137 (2010). doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0570-3

Hendon, H.H., Wang, G. Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model. RMetS (2009). https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.370 

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