Project

About the project

Description

The future of the Kimberley will be determined by the interaction of many pressures (economic, ecological and social processes, climate change, human population dynamics, resource extraction etc.) and the effectiveness of strategies used to manage them. Effective management decision making requires an understanding of the system in question and some predictive capacity guided by considering future scenarios. This project represents the first attempt to integrate a large amount of data, knowledge and state-of-the-art understanding of the biophysical, ecological and social processes affecting the Kimberley marine environment drawing in new information generated by several of the KMRP projects. This information was used in two computer models (ALCES and Ecopath with Ecosim [EwE]) to simulate land, coastal and marine processes and to run 18 potential future scenarios to explore system behaviour, patterns of response and understand uncertainty.

Aims

  • To improve our understanding of the likely impacts of increasing human pressure and climate change at a regional scale
  • To integrate the knowledge and information generated by other projects into a unified modelling framework
  • To employ the Management Strategy Evaluation framework to engage key stakeholders in designing and imaging likely and desired regional futures and explore the consequence of different trends and management options
  • To communicate the modelling results to key decision makers in such a way that their results are understood and can be incorporated into the decision making process

Methods

  • Discuss potential scenarios with key stakeholders to explore the consequences of different management options.
  • Use two computer models, Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) and ALCES to integrate new and existing knowledge about the Kimberley to run simulations based on the scenarios.

Outcomes

  • Defined 18 scenarios of economic development, climate change impacts and five management strategies.
  • A management strategy evaluation tool that provides a framework within which to consider current understanding of the Kimberley marine system under future scenarios and management regimes.

Project News

Modelling a picture of the future Kimberley marine environment

Research Articles

Boschetti F, Lozano-Montes H, Stelfox B. (2020) Modelling regional futures at decadal scale: application to the Kimberley region. Science Reports https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56646-x

Media

Presentations

Knowledge Integration and MSE Modelling (2017 WAMSI Research Conference)

Modelling in the KMRP : Scope and Approach (2017 WAMSI Research Conference)

Using models to predict future scenarios in the Kimberley region (Parks and Wildlife Lunch and Learn session)

Knowledge integration and Management Strategy Evaluation modelling (2015 WAMSI Research Conference)

Details

Program: Kimberley Marine Research

Completed: October 2017

Location: Kimberley Region

Project Leader: Fabio Boschetti, CSIRO

Email: Fabio.Boschetti@csiro.au

Publications

Summary

Final Report